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Friday, May 30, 2008

Playing With Blocks


Two weeks into the project, we have a wall of concrete blocks and more holes in the ground. We also have a big pile of gravel in our driveway, but that is being moved around back today.
So far, so good.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

No Shortage Here


While running yesterday, I crossed one of the rail lines that goes through Roanoke. There were coal cars lined up as far as the eye could see in both directions.
Each of these cars has over $15,000 worth of coal (using an average of 111 tons per car at around $140 per ton) on its way to Norfolk and then to Europe. Too bad we can't put it in our cars.

Nice Going Jim

On this day after Memorial Day, I wanted to give a hat-tip to our junior Senator, Jim Webb, for making sure that the GI Bill allows veterans to attend college. The benefits had fallen behind tuition increases and need to be updated to fulfill the promises made to these young men and women.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Breakdown Street

One Thousand Barrels A Second by Peter Tertzakian provides excellent insight into the workings of the oil economy. Although it was written a few years ago (2006), the message is very relevant today as oil prices approach $140 a barrel. The author is the chief economist for ARC Financial, a Canadian company that invests in early stage energy companies.

The book based on Mr. Tertzakian's experience and research in the field. His analysis relies heavily on the concept of the energy "break point", an epoch which is rapidly approaching for petroleum. A break point when a specific source of energy enters a crisis period that ends with the reshuffling of the energy sources that serve as the main driver for an economy. This degree of change is wrenching and results in much dislocation. However, it is his assertion that the world is a better place after the shocks have died down.

Mr. Tertzakian goes on to describe the historical experience of breakpoints with whale oil and coal. The whale oil analogy seems somewhat stretched at times during the book, but the description of whales hunted to near extinction in the 1870s as whaler's chased them to the ends of the earth has interesting parallels with our own search for oil today in the nether regions of the world with chaotic prices and uncertain supplies.

He then covers the introduction of oil as the main energy source for industrial economies in the early 20th century. The coal breakpoint was driven primarily by the technical superiority of oil as a power source. Winston Churchill was an early proponent of shifting the British Navy from coal to oil before World War I because it offered a 33 percent improvement in the operating capacity (speed and range) of warships. It also showed similar technological and economic superiority for industrial applications but took many years to fully supplant coal in most of those because of existing investments (railroads are cited as the primary example of the long timeline for technical substitution of capital assets).

The scramble to secure resources of light, sweet crude oil (the easiest to refine and use) was on in full-effect by the end of World War I. Initially, the British dominated oil in the Middle East with their national oil companies, but America's independent oil companies had joined them by the end of the Second World War. The Seven Sisters (Standard Oil of New Jersey (Exxon), Royal Dutch/Shell, British Anglo-Persian (BP), Standard Oil of New York (Mobil), Texaco, Standard Oil of California (Chevron) and Gulf Oil) continued to dominate production until the rise of Arab nationalism and OPEC started to crack their domination. Mr. Tertzakian's description of this history is interesting and concise.

The OPEC-driven price rises in the 1970s inspired a first oil break point in the 1980s. In this breakpoint, oil was driven out of electricity production in the United States and replaced with coal and nuclear power by both government regulation and the price mechanism. In other countries, the reaction was more far reaching, with Japan and the United Kingdom imposing high tariffs on gasoline. Both of those countries use less oil today than in 1973.

Mr. Tertzakian measures the dependency on oil in an economy with the GDP elasticity of oil demand (how much more oil a country uses as it's economy grows) and notes that all industrialized countries have seen this oil dependency factor fall from the 1970s. However, the newly industrializing countries exhibit dependency factors that are similar to those shown by the United States in the 1960s. This is why the economic growth in China is having such a dramatic effect on the oil markets. Not only is China growing fast, but it's oil consumption is growing even faster than it would in the US if we were to have a similar rate of growth. He does not fall victim to linear thinking that China could actually continue on this pace, but even on realistic estimates of Chinese consumption, the world oil markets are going to be very tight. This tightness will precipitate chaotic pricing and supply issues that will ultimately result in the reshuffling of our energy consumption away from oil.

The coming oil break point (the subtitle of the book) will not be met with a pure technological solution in the near term. The infrastructure and technical requirements for replacing oil with, say, hydrogen are just too formidable. Instead, Mr. Tertzakian believes that the mix of oil usage in our economy will change through a mixture of conservation, life-style changes and technological evolution. He sees more efficient use of oil in transportation as one of the first things to change: smaller cars, more diesels and more hybrids. Far-flung suburbs will have to form more cohesive units to facilitate less travel and more telecommuting. Lastly, introduction of different sources of oil (bitumen, shale, sands, etc.) from a reliance on the more and more elusive light sweet crude will curb the price gyrations, albeit at a higher price level than before. Eventually, we may have technological replacement for oil, but certainly not in the next 10 years.

These shifts will not be pleasant and will not be driven wholly by the pricing mechanism. In his view, governments will have to mandate some changes (as they did in the 1970s and 1980s) to make it work. In the end, he believes that we will have a more healthy mixture of energy consumption, less reliant on the availability of cheap oil for growth and stability. In many ways, this will be a good thing and create new opportunities for riches along the lines of Edison, Rockefeller and Gates.

Overall, this was a good read if you are interested in the dynamics of oil markets and energy sources. The arguments are well-written, credible and backed with data. If I had read this two years ago and followed the advice given (basically, invest in energy efficiency and energy production as the break point approaches), I would be better off. This book has strengthened my resolve not to replace my older car until I see something that will dramatically improve my fuel economy and to make sure that energy efficiency is taken into account when making major decisions (e.g. all of the new appliances in our house will be Energy Star from here on out). It has also made me believe even more firmly that the gasoline excise tax in the United States needs to be raised dramatically with the funds used for both infrastructure projects and incentives to help push the pace of the changes. The break point is coming. How will it affect you?

Monday, May 19, 2008

Size Does Matter

This is another article in the popular press describing the benefits of smaller schools, those with 400 or so students. Again, why is Patrick Henry four times this size?

Sunday, May 18, 2008

The Thrill of Victory and ...

I thought we were finished for the year with our game this past week because we couldn't get enough players to play in a tournament in Salem. After chasing our tails around in circles for a while, we finally got enough players to field a team for seven on seven. I didn't know for sure that we would be playing until last night at about 9 PM, so it was a little ragged this morning and we missed one player through lapsed communication. In any event, we had 9, which was enough to give it a go.

It started well. The first game was against Salem. The skies looked ominous, but only a few drops came down. We went down early 4-1, but kept it close and stepped up our game on the defensive end to slow them down and come back to tie it by scoring in the last minute. In overtime, we stopped one push by Salem through a solid defensive stand and took it back the other way. One of our players (who has my vote for ground ball MVP for our season) took it in and put a nice low shot past their goalie for the W. It was a thriller and everyone was jazzed up.

We had about an hour and half before the start of the second game and had some brunch over at Famous Anthony's to recharge our batteries for the second match against the Vinton team. We had played them before and they were tough, with a lot of players at the very upper edge of our age bracket. It was nice to sit with some of the parents and girls for a quick meal - a nice and gracious bunch that, in retrospect, would have been a great way to end the day.

The first half of the second game was back and forth, we fell behind, but closed to within a goal at halftime. Then the rain started. It was a miserable cold rain that came down hard. I had neglected to bring a jacket and I could commiserate with the girls out there in shorts and jerseys. As the field got wetter and wetter, the size advantage that some of their girls had was just too much for our defense (one in particular could just go through them even if we had two or three on her due to her size advantage and stick skills).

A midfielder on our team (with the heart of a lioness) got hit in the mouth and had to come out. To her credit, she came back mad and teary-eyed but played in control and scored a few tallies. There were bodies (mostly ours) flying everywhere on the slick grass. It would have been to our advantage to have a more tightly called game by the officials, but that's not the way it worked out. We tied it up at 7, but just couldn't get another goal. Vinton played tough defense and we couldn't put it in the net even with some good opportunities, going down 10-7.

There were a lot of tears by the end (the last goal scored hit our stalwart goalie in the arm and gave her a nasty bruise - she shook it off and stayed in there). It was a really tough way to end it: cold, emotionally drained and on the losing end. I tried to rally everyone and congratulate them on a job well done over the season and thank each of them for their efforts, but the pathos was thick. The balance of the outing was kind of a blur. I forgot to hand out the Women's Div III lacrosse championship tickets given to us by the tournament director and drove home with my daughter in relative silence.

I'm going to look at the bright side - we came through when the chips were down to win the first game and just couldn't pull it together in miserable conditions for the second game. I wish the players moving up to the middle school team all the best next year and I'm looking forward to working with the returning players next year. But, right now, I have a headache.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Oh, Canada!


The ODAC and Roanoke College put on a great lacrosse clinic this morning for girls 8-17. It was a beautiful day and the clinic was a lot of fun. They had four stations on the field at Kerr Staduim with different skills at each and rotated through them over the course of an hour or so. We had about 10 or so players from our elementary team out there and all of them I talked to said it was fun. I watched for a bit and learned a few pointers on teaching skills (e.g. when you throw, get the stick off your shoulder by making an L with your dominant hand).

After the clinic, each of the girls got a free lacrosse ball, a ticket to the Womens Division III semi-finals taking place on the field immediately after the clinic and a coupon for a hotdog, chips and drink during the game. All for free. I really can't say enough good things about it (and a big hat tip to the people who put it together).

The semi-final game was a matchup between Salisbury University and Hamilton College. Hamilton had a lot of Canadian players on their team and the fans were boisterious but polite (which is sort of my sterotype for Canadians, but I digress). I was pulling for Salisbury since my sister went there, but really just wanted to see a fun game. I got my wish.

The first half was tightly played and Hamilton was up 7-4 at halftime but had dominated possessions and ground balls more than the score indicated. Salisbury was not playing very well and had difficulty clearing the ball - Hamilton left the goalie alone and matched up on everyone else and she forced a few passes, one of which was immediately turned into a goal. I'm not quite sure why she didn't just walk it up until encountering pressure, all the way to the other end if they would let her.

During the first 20 minutes of the second half, Hamilton continued to build up a 10-5 lead and was playing smart possession lacrosse. Salisbury had a couple of good opportunities, but the Hamilton goalie was tough and they had 3 shots clang off the pipes. However, the Gulls stuck to it and came back. After allowing a goal on a free shot on a pretty dumb slashing foul in the 8m arc, the Gulls got after it and scored quickly after winning a few draws to pull within one goal at 11-10 with less than a minute to play. The last draw was won by Hamilton and a hard foul was committed which game Hamilton possession with about 18 tics to go. But, the player awarded possession threw an errant pass that went out of bounds at midfield and Salisbury had one last chance. They roared down the field and got an excellent opportunity on a pass to a cutting wing, but the shot was high. Running it out and gaining possession for one last try with 3 seconds, they fed the ball into the middle and couldn't put a good shot on goal. A fun finish to a splendid day.

After the game, I asked my daughter and her friend what they thought of the game: "Boring. Can we get some more Blow Pops?" Sigh.

A View of Nothing


What do people do when they block up a window during a renovation project? A new master bath is going in just behind the wall of the current bathroom where the window looks out now. What happens to the existing bathroom window? Do we leave it in, put a trompe-l'oeil painting in it or make it a plain wall?






All of these decisions...

Friday, May 16, 2008

Narrow Stairs


I just downloaded Narrow Stairs the most recent Death Cab For Cutie release from Amazon.

Overall, it's a solid effort featuring the usual DCC smarty pants indie lyrics with the slow pop tempo.
This is a very polished album and definitely a progression from their previous (excellent) efforts. So far, none of the songs have buried themselves into my conscious like Amputations, Marching Bands of Manhattan or Title and Registration. But, I've only listened to it twice through. Plus, I do really like the Mondrain-like cover art (of course, when you download an MP3 version of a CD, you really don't get the nice glossy print.)

I think it is about time for Ben and Jimmy to get back together for another Postal Service album.

Backyard


The project has now begun in earnest and it is every bit as messy I thought it would be. Here is a snap from yesterday afternoon of our backyard after a day of digging with two of those little Bobcats.
Unfortunately, this used to be the thickest and most lush grass in our whole yard. At least I don't have to mow for the next few months.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Undefeated

We wrapped up our lacrosse season with a 7-4 victory over Salem at Reserve Avenue last night. It was a well played (if somewhat short) game. Salem has a couple of players that are very skilled but we have better depth. We had close to 30 there last night.

Over the course of the season, the girls improved tremendously. By the last couple of games, there was a lot more passing, ground balls were picked up more effectively and defenders moved their feet. There were many girls who went from newbie to skilled player. It was great to see.

I learned a lot as well. Next year, I'm going to plan practices out better so that we use the time more effectively and keep them moving at all times. I'll script it, make sure they understand what they are supposed to be doing and keep it very positive. The girls are like sharks, if they stop moving they (or at least their attention spans) die.

Overall, a successful season. As the girls say, "RVLLA - that's the way we like to play!"

Friday, May 9, 2008

Hammer Time


After a brief visit from our contractor yesterday, our renovation project is kicking off next week. I wrote a check for 15% of the total to get the ball rolling (probably top 5 in dollar terms of checks I've written in my lifetime). The Roanoke Gas guy was out here scoping it out as well, so it almost feels like a real project.


There are are still a ton of big and small decisions to be made: What kind of flooring do we want in the kitchen? What hardware should be used in the bathroom? What about appliances? Etc. From all accounts, we are in for about 4 months of dust and bother, but right now, we are at the always optimistic inception of a project where optimism reigns supreme.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Chaos

After this evening's lacrosse practice, I've gained additional respect for both elementary school teachers and advocates for reducing class size.
My fellow coaches couldn't make it tonight, so it was just me and 25 girls. It started out innocuous enough. They all ran, stretched and did some ground ball drills while I warmed up the goalie. Everyone seemed in good spirits because I had told them that we were going to scrimmage for the rest of practice.

After getting them separated into even teams (a bit of a challenge, but not off the charts), we got everyone positioned and commenced playing. It was going tolerably well. They are starting to get the move around on offense thing and the defensive play is improving dramatically but is still inconsistent. I stopped play a few times to correct some mistakes in positioning or tactics and we were moving along. I was feeling pretty good about the whole thing.

Then the cry rang out for a water break. Since it was warm out, I went against my better judgement and we took a 5 minute break. The rumblings of discontentment started when they could form secret cabals and plot against me while sipping their libation.

On return from the break, I thought it would be fair to rotate people around to different positions. I requested that the defense rotate to midfield, the midfield to attack and the attack to defense. This prompted many requests to play center and general confusion. I tried to get it sorted for about 10 minutes and eventually just had to go with what we had. After a few more feeble attempts, it was clear that my plans had been defeated. I struck my colors and called it a day.

These are great girls and well behaved in small groups, but get them in a critical mass and it is Lord of the Flies time out there and I'm Piggy getting whacked in the head with a rock. Although a lacrosse field is bigger than a classroom and the age range is broader than most classes (1st through 5th), you really need to have about one adult for every 15 kids to get anything done and half that is even better.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

The Paper Says So

It's official: lacrosse is catching on in Roanoke. I can attest to that. I see a lot more kids out and about with lacrosse sticks this year than last year.

Fun Game

Our girls team won a pretty close one last night against a scrappy Vinton squad 10-7. We played two 25 minute halves and were having so much fun that we decided to play another 10 minutes. Since we have a team of over 30, we could basically play two games back to back and not wear anyone out.

One goal was particularly impressive. One of our players went behind the goal with the ball and made a flawless pass right to her teammate on the crease who scored with a quick stick shot in the upper corner. It was a great play and I had to remind myself that these are elementary school kids out there (after the next draw, there was a big scrum around the ball and nobody could pick it up, which brought me back to reality).

For a first year team, Vinton was very good and they played really hard. They had a few players that were well skilled and everyone on their team hustled. I hope we can arrange to play them again.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Still Deciding

Our local Roanoke elections are Tuesday this week and I'm still deciding who to vote for. During the last election cycle in 2006, there was a large, contentious issue (for Roanoke) on the table: the disposition of Victory Stadium. It was razed and turned into athletic fields - a decision I was 100% in favor of and benefit from because that is where we have our girl's lacrosse practices and games.

Since that pivotal issue has been dealt with, we are faced with a more nebulous campaign that is more about the general approach that should be taken to solving the city's problems. In my opinion, the most pressing problem is the state of public education in the city. We have a 57% graduation rate in the city and, by some measures, have high schools that are ranked 298 and 299 out of 303 in the state. This is a complete disgrace and needs to be rectified.

I appreciate that we have a new superintendent who seems very qualified and dedicated, but she is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Many of the problems are fundamental to the structure of the schools. For example, they are too large to be effective. Why is Patrick Henry 1900 students when most research indicates that schools with 800 or fewer students are better (pdf link)? If it is a matter of money, raise taxes and address the infrastructure issues.

In the absence of a sea change in sentiment and direction, our schools will continue to flounder and fail. Sometimes, that requires doing things that are outside of the mainstream. A idea I saw recently was a school district that was offering to pay the college tuition for any graduate of the high schools. Why not? This gives kids an additional incentive to finish up with school because they have something to do after they graduate. Plus, the skills imparted by a high school education are inadequate for the kind of jobs that provide a decent wage. A bold and innovative program like that would certainly attract attention and contribute positively to the reputation of our city.

Second, is establishing Roanoke as a place that people want to be and that takes good jobs. Economic growth has been a problem. By encouraging people who grow up here to stay here and getting "creative class" people to consider moving here, we can improve the vibrancy of the local economy. In some ways, this is a chicken and egg problem where you need to have the high value jobs to encourage people to come here and you need to have the high value people to start the businesses with the high value jobs. It's a tough problem to solve.

For people with school age children, this gets addressed somewhat by the education issue. When we moved here from Seattle in 2000, I remember thinking, "Roanoke is a nice place but the schools are pretty lousy" and it made the decision to come here (vs. say NOVA or Charlottesville) more difficult. Showing a serious commitment to education changes the perception of our city dramatically.

However, there are other ideas that could help cut the Gordian knot of kickstarting economic growth. Things like the new art museum help by getting some notice and appealing to people who value culture. To attract the attention of people that would otherwise never consider living in Roanoke, we need to pick something and be the best at it. We aren't going to be able to have the best climate or professional sports teams, but we can find something that becomes the "hedgehog concept" for the city and make it happen.

To me, something that makes sense would be to take advantage of the natural beauty, relatively mild climate and head start we have already with the existing greenways and endeavor to become the best small city for cycling the East. Why not? This would attract attention of the creatives that can contribute to economic growth, but would give us something we can take pride in and hopefully encourage people in our area to live a little healthier (you can get out and walk on a nice bicycle path as well as ride on it). This would cost money and take a lot focused effort, but is a much better use of limited resources than an amphitheater that would sit idle and empty most of the time and contribute little to our citizen's day to day lives.

A city with great schools and bike paths combined with a growing creative economy, natural beauty, a reasonable cost of living, a decent climate and Southern hospitality? Wow. That sounds like an excellent place to live.

After that rant, I still need to pick who I will vote for on Tuesday. Nobody seems that bold or innovative and it might be a bit much to ask of a city that took years to decide whether or not to demolish a dilapidated relic of a stadium, but hope springs eternal. In that light, I'll read up on the candidates carefully and try to pick the best people who might have a fresh vision of what Roanoke could be and have the courage to ask question "Why Not?"